Ptolomeo el comentar que me parezca un error, no quiere decir que no piense que 50millones para esta gente no es nada, por supuesto que con las expectativas que este valor tiene, cualquier subida por pequeña que sea para esta gente supondra una lluvia de dinero.
Ahora bien sigue pereciendome dificil, tradear tal cantidad de acciones y que el precio ni se inmute.
De los comentarios que se han hecho hoy doy gran importancia al referido al libro de Paulson, ex-secretario del Tesoro y que estaba al frente cuando la incautacion de Wamu.
"Paulson ha dicho en su libro de memorias que la decisión WAMU fue un error"..
Vamos si esto lo lee la juez y a ella le quedaba alguna duda sobre que determinar en el proceso, lo tendría más claro si cabe.
I had to manually type this up off of Amazon. I think I transcribed it correctly. I have some serious questions about where he's getting the 55 cents on the dollar. enjoy.
Sunday September 21 2008
(…about selling MS to JPM (Pages 274,275))
The fact is, had John called Jamie again, I’m sure the JPMorgan chief would still have said no. WaMu was Jamie’s top priority, as I had known for some time.
Pages 292, 293
September 25, 2008
...
Then Washington Mutual went down – the biggest failure in US banking history. While legislators were negotiating, Sheila Bair called me around 11:00 am to break the news that the FDIC was going to seize the bank, and that JPMorgan would pay the government $1.9 billion for the company, which had $301 billion in assets.
WaMu’s demise wasn’t a surprise. It had been struggling for months and had taken a catastrophic turn for the worse: Its CDS rates, already shocking at 2,742 on September 15, had nearly doubled to 5,266 on Wednesday, September 24, as the bank was hit by a run on deposits. Customers had withdrawn $16.7 billion over the preceding ten days.
Back in March, JPMorgan had wanted to buy WaMu, but its regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), and management had opted instead for a $7 billion capital investment from a group led by the private-equity firm TPG. This decision proved to be a mistake: an acquisition by JPMorgan would have stabilized the bank. Still, I had kept in close touch with Sheila and Ben Bernanke on WaMu and periodically talked with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
Unfortunately, the WaMu solution wasn’t perfect, although it was handled smoothly using the normal FDIC process. JPMorgan’s purchase cost taxpayers nothing and no depositors lost money, but the deal gave senior WaMu debt holders about 55 cents on the dollar, roughly equal to what securities had been trading for. In retrospect, I see that, in the middle of a panic, this was a mistake. WaMu, the sixth-biggest bank in the country, was systematically important. Crushing the owners of preferred and subordinated debt and clipping senior debt holders only unsettled the debt holders in other institutions, adding to the market’s uncertainty about government action. Banks were even less willing to lend to one another. In the future, I concluded, we were going to need to go beyond the standard FDIC resolution process for a failing bank
Por comentar:
acciones valor objetivo valor actual Valor relativo WAHUQ 50 23,85 47,7% WAMKQ 25 2,65 10,6% WAMPQ 1000 83 8,3% WAMUQ 8 0,241 3,0125%Entre las WAMPQ y WAMKQ (que se suponen están en el mismo orden en la línea de cobro) hay un pequeño desfase a favor de las PQ (¿igual porque son más caras?) De todos modos si tenemos en cuenta la relación 114:1 entre preferentes y comunes, las comunes deberían de estar en torno a los 0,7280701754386 o las preferentes en 27,474. ¿qué pasará el viernes?
La columna de porcentaje no la entiendo.
Las K cobran antes que las P, por eso estan mas caras.
Es el porcentaje del valor objetivo que pueden alcanzar.
Por ejemplo WAHUQ está al 47%. El que compre WAHUQ, si se paga al 100%) 'sólo' duplicará su inversión. Está antes en la linea de cobro, por eso su valor relativo es mayor. Las WAMKQ y las WAMPQ están al 10% de su valor (podrías multiplicar x10)
Y finalmente las comunes, que más riesgo tienen, pues están al 3% de su valor (si ponemos 8$ de precio objetivo). Eso quiere decir que puedes multiplicar x33 una inversión en comunes, pero claro, el riesgo de perderlo todo también es más alto.
Hay que tener en consideración que a partir de 2 dolares de valoración de la común, es mas rentable comunes que preferentes y viceversa.
Estimados, pronosticos para hoy...
Pre-Market
(50) 0,2380 (150) 0,2400
