Opiniones...todos tenemos la nuestra pero en parte comparto la de este yanqui
Someone asked for my forecast in an OT thread. I am a new member here so feel free to take it with a grain of salt. All of this is my opinion and could be wrong.
The forecast, per se will be near the end of the post. I wanted to organize my thoughts and (since I am new here) make my position clear so those who have not read my posts on IHUB will know where I stand.
As always, I appreciate refutations if they are based in logic rather than dogma (sorry - reference to IHUB bashers). I enjoy an intelligent discussion! In other words, comments are not just welcome, but appreciated.
I tend to talk in round numbers because ballpark numbers are all we will have until dust settles. For example, I talk about the 4 billion instead of the 3.7 billion. It is just easier that way. If this is a problem here, please let me know.
Things I believe - old news
JPM with the aid of FDIC and OTS pulled the rug out from under WAMU in order to eliminate a serious competitor and quickly gain market share in the NW US.
IMO, JPM is guilty of the accusations that they violated non disclosure agreements during negotiations. I suspect that the only reason they entered negotiations was to acquire that information for nefarious purposes.
I suspect the two runs on WAMU were (at the very least) exacerbated by JPM. It is amazing what a few 'friendly warning' phone calls can accomplish when people are afraid their money might 'go away'.
The fact that WAMU was left off of the NO-SHORT list make me believe that there was, in fact, a conspiracy in place.
The fact that WAMU was seized just before TARP supports that assumption as well.
The fact that everyone seems to agree that WAMU was solvent was seized makes me wonder why it was seized just ahead of TARP. I don't think poor liquidity alone should have been enough to justify seizure with TARP looming just days ahead.
I believe that without having acquired WAMU, JPM may have failed or still be in danger of failing.
I believe that FDIC's auction of WAMU was a sham.
I think that Quinn, Emmanual, et al. are very shrewd lawyers who are several moves ahead of the rest of the legal beagles and I want to believe that they are indirectly looking out for us. I have reservations, but this is how I currently feel.
I believe that FDIC and JPM are prepared to pay a penalty for what they did. I feel that they will try as hard as they can to evade it, but in the finally analysis, they will have achieved their goals even if the lose. That is to say, JPM as an entity will still exist and be the 'king of the hill' in banking.
I believe that settlement will occur before discovery is complete and/or becomes public. I do not believe that there will ever be a trial over any of this. In the end, it will be swept under the rug. I have mixed emotions. Sweeping it under the rug will require a better settlement (and more money for me) but will deny justice for the most nefarious act in business since the robber barons of the 1800s.
Things I believe - recent developments
Summary Judgement of $4B
I believe that THJMW has been delaying summary judgment on the $4B for a specific purpose. I have felt for quite some time that this purpose was to facilitate a settlement that is either near conclusion or has been reached but is prevented from being implemented at this time by technicalities. I cannot believe that she cannot make up her mind as it would be too easy to deny SJ and have more hearings. Also, I believe she has had ample time to craft an ironclad decision.
It is also possible that THJMW is waiting for the other Delaware appeal to be resolved (or to expire) before issuing an order, but I don't think that is the case.
Washington DC Case
I am enthralled by the judge in the DC case. This occurred when she asked the pointed question about Wachovia. I felt she was putting FDIC on notice that this case would not be a walk in the park for them. I have been told by a former bank examiner that it is nearly impossible to beat the FDIC in court because the have a 'home court advantage' (pardon the pun). The fact that the judge would ask that question helps me believe that this could be the exception that proves the rule.
I am also encouraged that the judge in the DC case made a point of not getting into a territorial battle with THJMW. IMO, this is good news.
Things I believe - latest developments
I think that the addition of an Equity Committee is a good thing. I think it will cost us in terms of final value of the stock, but it is good to have them in position as a hedge against a power block wiping the common stock holders out.
I think that the urgency exhibited by the US Trustee betrays an impending event. What that event is, I do not know. However, I infer that something has shifted.
Some folks are suggesting that Quinn et al have shown their hand and are about to leave the stockholders out in the cold. I do not know if this is so, but I believe that if they did, the class action suit that would follow would be gigantic.
I think it is more likely that there is some facet of negotiation that is furthered by posturing that way.
Someone suggested a long time ago that Quinn et al did a wonderful job of luring JPM and FDIC into this adversarial process. I can't put my finger on why, but I feel that this is more of the same.
My examination of the numbers makes me feel that there will be plenty of wealth to go around. In fact, there is so much that WAMU could conceivably rise from the ashes and form a new bank. This is the last thing in the world that JPM wants. I guess this could be a ploy to push the negotiations toward cash settlement rather than stock swap. I don't feel strongly about that. I am just 'thinking out loud.'
It is also possible that Quinn et al are about to sell us down the river. Either way, I am glad the US Trustee is making this move which appears to be a step toward the formation of an Equity Committee.
One other thought - It is possible that the Quinn et al has (through their statements) incited the US Trustee to form an equity committee (EC) because the EC's motives and actions should be predictable. It may be that 'the writing is on the wall' that the deadline for exclusivity will be missed and Quinn et al have need for another power block to keep the creditors from taking control of the reorganization plan.
These people are paid incredibly large sums of money to be devious. Who knows what is going on in their minds.
PREDICTION - I believe that there will be an equity committee formed by the end of January 2010.
The stock action of late has been crazy. There are a couple of things that I don't understand.
Thursday's volume should have been enough to drive the stock much higher than it did. Clearly there were willing sellers at 0.18.
Friday's volume should have been enough to drive the stock much lower than it did. Clearly there were willing buyers at 0.11.
Technicians will note that .11 and .18 are pretty reasonable spots for technical support and resistance. If the volume remains robust, we may be seeing the professional traders taking an interest in this stock. If so, it is only a matter of time until the price action starts being a little more reasonable and predictable.
It is important to note that we closed higher on Friday than on Wednesday. If we look at the similarities of this action to that at the end of August, we can hope for a run up in 2 to 3 weeks. Just in time for the January hearing in Delaware... hmmmmm.
One other thing to note is that while this run up was nowhere near as high as the last one in WAMUQ, the WAMPQs ran up to their late September highs. This tells me that the situation is improving. It screams that people have more belief that the preferreds will get paid. This is the first step toward a belief that the commons will get paid. Stay tuned.
PREDICTION - This stock is not going to go straight up, but we should start finding new plateaus soon.
Final Predictions
This is where the fat boy goes out on a limb.
CREEEEEEEEK
My most recent thoughts have been that this would be wrapped up in January 2010. I do not think this is the case. I am becoming more and more convinced that the formation of an Equity Committee, while a good thing in the long run, indicates that we are nowhere near the end result. If it is not a signal that this will go past the 'exclusivity' period, then it is going to be one more voice at the table where nothing has been settled yet.
I try to remember that if this goes long enough, my holdings will become long term capital gains.
It doesn't help.
Now let me step a bit further out on the limb.... if you listen, you can hear the wood starting to pop and crack.....
The value of WAMU stocks at the end of all this...
Preferreds - Face Value
Commons - between $22 and $25
At the risk of being accused of influencing others to help myself accomplish something... I believe there will be a period of time where $10 to $12 looks like the best opportunity to get out. I may get out then too... I have trouble deciding if the $20 numbers are wishful thinking.
Don't expect triple damages - this will be settled before JPM puts their fate in the hands of a jury.
If you read this far, you deserve a cookie or something. Sorry if I rambled too much.
