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Freedom is driven by determination

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26/05/20 06:38
Ha respondido al tema Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
El SP está donde está por la FED. Nada más.Y no lo van a dejar caer. Llevan años desmostrandolo.Llegados hasta aquí, es mucho más probable ver el SP en 5.000 que volver a verlo en 2.100. Lo cual no significa absolutamente nada sobre la prosperidad del pueblo americano.
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26/05/20 03:54
Ha respondido al tema ¿Qué le pasa a Telefónica (TEF)?
Otro más que ve la luz.Pallete y su estrategia es un pasivo incuantificado para la sociedad. El mercado lo teme y sale el dinero corriendo.Del alineamiento con los minoritarios, ni hablamos. La directiva cobra una fortuna sin relación alguna con el performance de la sociedad (ya no digamos de la cotización).
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25/05/20 05:21
Ha respondido al tema Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
El tema es en cuanto tiempo aplican esas recompras de 155m$.Ahora deben estar tiesos porque han recomprado una mierda a menos de 10$ por acción. Han pagado los NOK de 2020.Y en 2021 viene otro pago muy potente de NOK que en la propia call dijeron que tratarían de refinanciar sólo una parte.Las ideas y los planes los tenemos todos muy claros, pero la realidad es que estos señores están en otra página.
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24/05/20 10:54
Ha respondido al tema Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
David Einhorn comercializa de nuevo su fondo Greenlight.For most of the last 20 years, our funds have been closed for new investment. Over the pastfew years, we’ve had redemptions and the Partnerships have become smaller. A year ago,we opened for new investment, but made no real attempt to market the Partnerships. That isabout to change. We think it’s a good time to invest in Greenlight. We know it will take astrong stomach to overlook our recent performance, and we recognize that some of you mayneed to see proof of a turn first. That said, we have not felt as optimistic about the opportunityset ahead of us since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis¿dónde se puede comprar el fondo?
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24/05/20 10:37
Ha respondido al tema Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
The CBO now projects that the budget deficit will be 18% of GDP in 2020 and over 10% in 2021. This takes into account the estimated effects of all pandemic-related legislation enacted through April 24, but not the effect of any potential further stimulus. The year “2020” could come to stand for a 20% deficit and 20% unemployment. The country is consuming more than it is producing – our combined private plus public savings rate is negative. The private sector cannot finance this level of government spending without further crowding out private sector investments and driving up interest rates.Historically, the U.S. has turned to its trade partners, particularly China, to finance its debts. However, China’s economy is already under pressure. Here in the U.S., there is widespread discussion of reducing our dependence on Chinese supply chains, and the chorus of voices blaming China for the pandemic is growing louder. The lawsuits have already started, and it wouldn’t shock us if President Trump were to suggest using the debt we owe the Chinese to make restitution. All told, it is unlikely the Chinese will finance U.S. government deficits on this go-round. These large deficits can only be financed by the Fed through the creation of new money. The inflation is unlikely to appear immediately. Opportunistic price-gouging on toilet paper, hand sanitizer, milk, rice and potatoes is not a signal of broad inflation. However, a country that consumes much more than it produces, financed by ongoing money creation, will have more money chasing fewer goods and services. Once the initial shock wears off and the recovery begins, the inflation will begin to show up – and it probably won’t be limited to the share prices of money-losing “story” stocks. The deflationists point to Japan as the obvious counter-example. However, Japan never ran these kinds of annual deficits, never had a large negative public plus private national savings rate, and never grew its money supply this quickly. Now that the political fiscal dam has burst, the authorities have no incentive to slow the support. Stimulus packages 1, 2 and 3 will likely be followed by 4, 5, 6… The Fed will create money (and attempt to suppress interest rates) to support the economy. And the U.S. is not alone – it’s a global pandemic and a global response. We expect inflation on a global basis. We expect policymakers to target and applaud mid-single digit inflation, which, combined with interest rate suppression, will be the only way to outgrow the mounting debts. It might get tricky a few years from now if inflation accelerates further. The Fed has demonstrated it doesn’t have the stomach to slow the economy by reigning in policy. We believe the implied negative real interest rates are bullish for gold and for unlevered real assets with pricing power (home prices will rise, while leveraged commercial real estate will fall from lack of demand). 
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