Interesante Teoría
Vnertia hit on something that I hadn't thought of - perhaps their reluctance to offer $$ to stockholders comes in anticipation of possible class-action type lawsuits, etc, for all the other stockholders who've lost money on this over the last months and years? And then, I think: no, in fact buying off the current shareholders with cash would be a great way to bury much of this issue once-and-for all. We'd never depose Jamie or see those short-interest reports or read those emails.
I've been thinking about something else, something that I'm sure others have said as well but that I am only just getting my hands around. Perhaps the whole Friday show was done for WMB Bondholders' benefit, and not necessarily to broadside the shareholders.
Remember (if I have this right): In the courtroom, for better of for worse, Rosen at no time mentioned equity. Even in a later interview with Peg at Dow Jones he mentioned that the WMB bondholders could kill this entire settlement proposal if they wanted to (not mentioning equity, although we certainly believe that we, too, have the ability to kill this deal).
Further, I have developed a grudging respect for JPM and the way they have handled thsi entire thing. Let's face it, to this day they still smell like roses. I cannot believe, with 38,000 ex-WAMU employees and a significant presence in the state of Washington and throughout the Western U.S. that they would run the risk of blackening this entire deal once-and-for-all by creaming shareholders over a relatively small amount of money (relative to what they have earned to date, and what they will earn in the future from this entire debacle).
Further still, I cannot overlook the thought that this entire opportunity would not exist for WAMPQ, WAMKQ and WAMUQ shareholders if we weren't, collectively, willing to throw the WMB Bondholders under the bus. This entire bankruptcy is unique, not least because an entire class of creditor (WMB Bondholders) have basically been sideswiped and hung out to dry. P and K and Q holders have been able to leap-frog the WMB obligations for a place further up in line - in a 'normal' bankruptcy, where all the bonds stood in line in front of all the stock, we stockholders would have nothing to fight over - there is simply not enough money or guilt to go around and to trickle down to us.
8-Ball: what if a 'deal' has already been 'struck' between JPM, FDIC, WMI and the Equity Committee? Remember, THJMW has yet to formally admit the Equity Committee to the proceedings - why? Given their druthers, I'd bet that JPM would rather pay out money to WAMU stockholders (who comprise their customers, employees and neighbors) than Chinese WMB bondholders?
Maybe the proposal was presented as it was to scare the bondholders into acceptance of much lower terms. I can't believe Rosen et al would shrug off the possible repercussions of blowing off equity holders in such a cavalier fashion.
