Predicciones varias
I put this in 8-ball because I am giving my prediction on what I expect is still to come this month. I think we will mark time until the 26th when we will finally see the new and improved POS POR. Don’t expect fireworks on the 19th unless Weil is stonewalling Susman. If Susman isn’t getting what he wants, then he will make a fuss on the 19th but otherwise not much noise. The 26th will be a different situation. Finally Rosen will come up with some numbers and a revised plan with the FDIC on board. We still won’t be happy but at least we will see what they are doing with the numbers. I expect that they will offer a small bone to the preferreds hoping to get their support. WMB bonds will get about 50 cents on the dollar and since a lot of WMB bondholders paid pennies, they will be on board. Preferreds get offered maybe 25 cents on the dollar and common are again left out. Susman will object and demand that the EC should be heard and he will dispute the validity of Weil’s numbers.
Then the negotiations begin as Weil tries to drum up support and convince THJMW that their revised POR is reasonable. Share price on preferreds goes up to around $80 for P’s and $2 for K’s on the news they will be getting more than 20 cents on the dollar. The pessimist side of me says Weil will get this passed with maybe giving the preferreds a little more and giving some warrants to commons. The optimist side of me believes Weil will lose exclusivity and Susman will be able to submit a new POR that will pay off the bond holders and give preferreds and commons control of the company. The values of the NOL’s make the company worth something so eventually the company can be sold and the preferreds are paid in full and commons actually make in the $5 share range.
This battle will go on for most of the summer so I am just going to sit in my chair, maybe take a trip to Olympia to see the court action on demanding the shareholder meeting, and of course going to the Seattle shareholder meeting. This whole thing is great theater and will make for a very entertaining summer. I will either end up very rich or very pissed.
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Your post is well thought out. If your prediction
is accurate I think the P's will trade around $150
to $160 a share. I base this on the fact that despite
being in line to receive a payout of $34 the H's are
only trading at 65% of that at this time.
If the preferreds get an offer of 25 cents on the dollar
and if they trade similiarly that would put the P's at $150
to $160 range and the K's at $4.
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I think we're making this too hard.... All Susman has to do is show that WMI has $4B in JPM bank, $5B in tax returns, and $9B in Capital Gains (actually losses per loss of shares in WMB Bank- per Seeking Alpha article and Marymbobh post)....
So that's ~$18B in assets with very little work and per MOR, $8B liabilities..... So why are shareholders getting zero? That's all Susman Godfrey and our EC have to do.........
I think our team needs to focus like a laser beam, cut through all this crap, and simplify in very simple math terms so that the Judge and the whole world can understand. Once we do this, we will quickly get a real offer to settle.
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Aside from my comments above, I also think Rosen might surprise us in next POS POR with a couple of bucks for WAMUQ. I know most folks don't agree with this so let me give you my rationale:
1.) Rosen knows that after 19 mnths of litigation, we're really not that far from settling... We're actually pretty close.
2.) Rosen knows Judge Walrath is tired of this case. When implied that last week in court when she said that the debtors have been investigated to death, and she didn't want an examiner to add cost and delays of another 5 mnths,,,,, that was very telling.... she's tired of this case and wants it to end.. that's why she said don't try court's patience and give ec lawyers all the data.
3.) Rosen knows on 3/26, he loses exclusivity and others can file plan.
4.) Rosen knows our EC Chairperson only owns commons.... so EC will never agree unless WAMUQ gets something.
5.) Rosen needs to know what EC will settle for.. So he has to put something on table so EC will show it's hand. Why not do it now in next POR revision?
6.) Rosen is probably worried about the risk of letting Susman Godfrey get into more discovery....
7.) Remember what Rosen said back in January - he didn't want EC because "they would want too much money"... so he knows he has to give WAMUQ something, he's just trying to make it a small number..
